So here we are on the eve of Election Day. Think about it: Just 36 hours from now, we will still have no clue who the next mayor of Nashville will be. We will, though, have a runoff! More mailers! More commercials! More pandering! It’s all pretty exciting! Me? I plan to be living somewhere else by then. But you all have fun with it.

Anyway, for those of you following along at home here’s what the strong suits of the mayoral candidates appear to be (in terms of political support) after these many weeks of campaigning:

David Briley:

Strong suits: Middle-class “progressive”-types; younger people; scattered policy wonks; the “netroots” (what there are of them); gentrified East Nashville; some teachers; a few lawyers

Bob Clement:

Strong suits: Anyone who was on social security while he was a congressman; old-time Nashville Democrats; people who think Nashville’s best days were somewhere in the mid-1970s; businesspeople who don’t understand which way the wind is blowing

Karl Dean:

Strong suits: Upper-class “progressive” types; Team Purcell; people who like to think they care a lot about public education yet send their own children to private schools; Nashville Symphony season ticket holders; courthouse people; businesspeople who do understand which way the wind is blowing

Buck Dozier:

Strong suits: Church of Christ members; people who think the most important vote in their life was the one they made against horse racing 20 years ago; people who would prefer fewer gays and Mexicans hanging around the area; some police; many firefighters; Republican voters who think they’re somehow voting for a Republican because–let’s face it–Davidson County Republicans are pretty easily duped

Howard Gentry:

Strong suit: African-American voters; a smattering of “progressive” types who like the First-Black-Mayor-of-Nashville angle; a few Republican voters here and there who want to be able to say they voted for a black guy whenever anyone says they’re racists; a handful of businesspeople

I really have no idea what’s going to happen, but that won’t stop me from making a gut prediction. Here goes:

Dean 29%
Gentry 21%
Clement 21%
Dozier 14%
Briley 13%
Other 2%

I think Gentry will benefit by having the political base least likely to defect anywhere else. Briley takes voters from Dean, and Dean takes voters from Briley (more the latter, I suspect). Clement and Dozier are in the same boat, we’re just talking about different passengers (Old Nashville Democrat/Boner/Fulton voters, as opposed to the New Nashville Democrat/Bredesen/Purcell voters in the Dean-Briley camp). Gentry, I believe, doesn’t lose substantial portions of his base to anyone else in this way. His base of African-Americans, while politcally Democratic, is not closely tied to either the Old Nashville or New Nashville Democratic crowds, and, as such, stays pretty firmly in his camp.

The smart money says Dean and Clement in the runoff. I’m not very smart, so I’m going with Dean and Gentry instead. We will, of course, see.

UPDATE: I should probably explain why I have Dean with such a (relatively) high number. I’m applying the general rule that undecided voters tend to break toward the candidate with the most apparent forward momentum at the end. In this case, that’s Dean. Which means, yes, TV money wins elections. But you know that already, right?