Feb
06
Posted on 02-06-2008 at 01:45pm
The numbers, they are a changin’
Filed Under (Elections & Candidates) by Jim Voorhies on 02-06-2008

From NBC News, Obama may have won smaller states but the Democratic method of splitting delegates has put him in front by a small margin. He now has 838 to Clinton’s 834 (Edwards has 26.), not a win by any means. The primary calendar for the next few weeks favors Obama (Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, Maine, DC, Maryland, Virginia, Hawaii & Wisconsin). Some political analysts think this will start Democrats off on a race to go negative. These numbers don’t include the “super delegates” which means the office holders and such. Once you add those numbers in to the count (and they’re based on what the Clinton & Obama camps tell the reporters, so we’re safe in taking those as gold–not!), they’re still half way to the goal and within 60 or so delegates of each other.

In local blogs, Southern Beale isn’t quite clear on why Tennessee went for Huckabee. Sean Braisted doesn’t feel victorious but he’s liking how things went (except for a few hecklers). The Democratic party is focused on the response to the tornado damage. Bill Hobbs thinks Democrats are racist (and uses Democratic and Republican platforms from the early 1800s up to 1964 to demonstrate) and Aunt B. responds. Freddie O’Connell thinks Karl Rove created a monster that will come back to haunt the Republicans, Mary Mancini doesn’t get out much, and Glen Dean still thinks water boarding is OK with him.

Edit: Oh, and Phil posted on Super Tuesday as well and has an interesting take on Southerners voting for Obama.

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Comments

LeBlanc on 6 February, 2008 at 2:27 pm #

For me Huckabee seems like the only sane and truly conservative of the Republicans…you know, lesser of the evils…


Jim Voorhies on 6 February, 2008 at 2:30 pm #

I know a progressive minister who refers to that sort of situation we tend to find in elections as “the evils of two lessers.”


Slartibartfast on 6 February, 2008 at 4:18 pm #

What the?

I go to work, after hearing the news that “Clinton won super Tuesday”.

I get home, and apparently Obama won by a slim margin?

The formula for calculating delegates on the Democratic side must be as complex as Hillary’s 93 health care plan.

Somebody call Harry and Louise.

I’m beginning to think Obama’a actually going to win the nomination. I can think of a few heads that are going to explode.


dolphin on 6 February, 2008 at 4:33 pm #

I’m beginning to think Obama’a actually going to win the nomination.

I think you’re right. It’s obviously too early to say at this point, but based on the trends in the polls, I’d say the longer this goes on without a frontrunner, the better Obama’s odds are.


nm on 6 February, 2008 at 4:58 pm #

Obama will probably do better and better in the popular vote as time goes on. Clinton already has commitments from most of the superdelegates, though. (That’s what being the establishment candidate is all about.) To offset that, Obama will have to start winning primaries by really large margins.


Jim Voorhies on 7 February, 2008 at 8:13 am #

I’ve never seen the actual formula (it’s stored inside a baggie tucked into a Miracle Whip jar in a safe inside the Democratic National Headquarters, as I understand), but it does include variables like sunspots, the number of Girl Scouts selling cookies in Brentwood, and other significant factors.


Jim Voorhies on 7 February, 2008 at 8:13 am #

Gaah!


captain bringdown on 7 February, 2008 at 11:03 am #

If this thing goes into the convention with neither Obama or Billary having the needed number, it will get VERY interestng. We may have cigarsmoke filled backrooms and oldtime dealmaking.Can anyone say AL GORE?