Feb
21
Posted on 02-21-2008 at 06:36pm
Filed Under (Hockey) by John Hutcheson on 02-21-2008

Or should that be casting out? There’s a Pred’s game tonight and I’m not going, along with probably around three to four thousand empty seats. I have tickets to 13 games and have been to 8. That would be eight losses. Quite possibly, I’m not wanted (I think I’m on the ‘watch list’).

Mostly, I’m wondering about the state of the Preds and their future here. I hope we have a lot more hockey (and I’m hoping to announce soon that MCB will have a ‘hockey specialist’ posting from time-to-time, soon), but I’m not optimistic about the long-term future.

Preds watcher and far-more-knowledgeable-fan, Paul Nicholson (Geek Thoughts) doesn’t seem so optimistic either:

Through 28 games, the Preds have averaged 12,756 in paid attendance. ….If my numbers are right (and this is something better suited to Forechecker), the Preds need to average 13,830 for the remaining games in order to hit the league minimum 13,125 needed to receive the desperately needed revenue sharing. That is slightly more than what we’ve averaged over the four games between Jan 31st-Feb 7th (13,467) that included the Phoenix sell-out, but it is possible.

In order to reach the 14,000 required to keep the force the Predators to stay in town under the current (old) lease with the city, the team would have to average 16,820 in paid attendance, which let’s face it, at this point is not going to happen.

Maybe my math is wrong.
Maybe some miracle will happen.

Miracles have happened in hockey……hey..ya*?

*2005 is calling, and they want their references back..

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Comments

Rob Robinson on 21 February, 2008 at 6:58 pm #

Hutch, please stop going to games. ;)

The numbers are sour for this year, but I *think* the new owners get how much the franchise turmoil hurt attendance this year. They seem dedicated to winning the community back over in the short term, and I think that will begin paying dividends again as the franchise transitions toward next season.

All of this, of course, assumes that the new owners don’t exercise the escape clause in the current lease, but I optimistically expect that they won’t … or that the new lease will be in play by season’s end (maybe). We’ll see.


Paul Nicholson on 22 February, 2008 at 12:00 am #

I’m gonna make a full post update on this soon, but it looks like i may be proved wrong, and gladly so. Tonights game - a Thurs night - was a sellout. Sat against Dallas is already a sellout. The 14,000 will still be a loooong stretch, but it is looking more possible - especially if playoffs count toward the totals for the lease (not sure if they do)


Southern Beale on 22 February, 2008 at 8:50 am #

I have tickets to 13 games and have been to 8. That would be eight losses. Quite possibly, I’m not wanted (I think I’m on the ‘watch list’).

Indeed.

You can give your tickets to us. The Preds have won every game we’ve attended this season, including the game Tuesday night when it looked like we’d blown our lead.

Attendance-wise, I was surprised. Tuesday wasn’t a sellout by any stretch of the imagination, but it seemed a lot more full than I expected for a “school night.”

I think the whole “are they moving to Canada/KC or aren’t they” think right at the beginning of the season was devastating. If we didn’t already have our season tickets I’m not sure we’d have bought them, and we are HUGE Predators fans. I mean, why invest thousands of dollars in season tickets if the team is leaving? And I’ve no doubt the uncertainty affected the players, their early season performance was, well, just shitty.

But they’re doing much better, and they do seem to be digging their way out of the hole.


The Forechecker on 22 February, 2008 at 9:08 am #

I wouldn’t sweat the 14,000, the 13,125 is more important in the short term to earn the full amount of revenue sharing from the NHL, and that figure seems assured.

As Paul noted, last night was a sellout, Saturday’s a sellout, and there’s a Saturday game in March that’s nearly already sold out as well. I also saw a promotion last night that said the Tuesday, March 11 game against San Jose will have a “free food” promotion, so I expect that will do well.

Some of the guys over at the Preds message boards track the attendance in detail, and someone got word from a ticket rep that the 13,125 figure is just about achieved. The good news is that the new ownership group has their head in the right place on all of this, and is working hard to sell the game, not simply whine that corporations aren’t supporting them.


Rob Robinson on 22 February, 2008 at 9:16 am #

Great comments, guys. I think your insights reflect very well the state of the franchise at the moment. There is plenty of work to be done, but plenty to be hopeful about, too. Go Preds!!!