OK, in truth, I don’t know if this is factual but it is terrifyingly possible, since the price of crude went up $5 a barrel yesterday alone. Over at Random Mumblings, Jack Lail quotes from a Fast Company interview of T. Boone Pickens, the Texas oilman.

Fast Company: What will happen in the next five years?

Pickens: Demand will go up, and price will go up.

Fast Company: Take a stab at what we’ll be paying at the pump in five years.

Pickens: Oh hell, that’s so far out. Maybe $6 to $8 a gallon.

Pickens is a walking contradiction. He was the principal funding behind the Swift Boat attack ads on John Kerry and he believes in global warming to the point that he’s spending $10 billion to create the country’s biggest wind farm with 2,000 turbines. He may be controversial, but he does know oil and he’s probably not far off. Will the possibility of doubling your gasoline bill over the next presidential term affect votes? You know, issues, over personality or race or sex or age.

Newscoma doesn’t and she loves them.

I have said before that probably my most favorite southern delicacy is pickled okra. Not the slimy kind but pickled. You could pickle a Ho Ho and it would delight me to no end. I’m a pickle person and I buy them like a maniac. In the past two weeks, I noticed that a jar of pickled okra went from $2.29 to $3.59. A jar of pickles (Klaussen kosher baby dills) went from $2.79 to $3.89.

Of course, I didn’t get them. I wanted them, but they didn’t jive with the budget. They weren’t necessary. I can do without a frakking jar of pickles. And yes, I’m making a point. It’s not about pickles but you guys are smart. You know where I’m going here.

Money can get even tighter in the rural parts of the country. Nothing is nearby, not the grocery nor the bank nor the workplace. You have to burn gas to get anywhere. The rise in costs hits harder out in the boonies. ”Coma mentions hearing a guy talk about needing to go to a neurologist after he’d already spent $2,000 in medical costs. He’s not going - there’s no money for that. Whatever is going to happen is going to happen

We are sharing food at the office. Some folks don’t eat if we don’t so we do. I wish I were kidding but I’m not.

As Aunt B.says, dwell on that sentence a bit. It isn’t all roses in Mayberry, folks. There they don’t know what the technical definition of a recession is and they don’t care. It’s not technical, it’s personal, and it’s more and more like hard times out there. Most of the people running our government have no idea what it’s like - and never will.

In today’s Tennessean, Bredesen is talking about cutting the budget citing that personnel costs are the single largest expense in the budget.

But he looks at other cost-cutting measure as well while trying to maintain .

He says that education will not be impacted although it will be paid for by existing revenues.

• School funding: While Bredesen has pledged to cover the annual growth in the state’s school funding formula, he hasn’t said whether he will still dedicate an additional $87 million in cigarette tax money to schools.

The legislature last year approved a 42-cent tax hike on every pack of cigarettes mostly to boost funding for schools. But the tax money isn’t legally bound to education programs, so it might be one area where Bredesen could find extra dollars.

• Pre-kindergarten: Bredesen has acknowledged that it’s unlikely he will be able to add another $25 million to the pre-K program this year. Senate Republicans — who have been cool to the pre-K program to begin with — are unlikely to want to go along with even a slight increase.

• Higher education: The state is mandated to pay for K-12 education in Tennessee. Not so for higher education. Given that leeway, the state’s public colleges and universities are likely to have to make do without any increased funding — and could even face a reduction in state money.

There’s more here.

As gas and food prices have risen, many of us have been thinking about ways to cut back, including using public transportation when possible. Nashville’s public transit options are already less than ideal, but riders may have fewer options in the near future.

Nashville MTA is holding public hearings next week to consider “a potential fare adjustment; the possible removal or reduction of several bus routes; possible reductions in service on all MTA routes, including the elimination of night service, Saturday, Sunday and holiday service as well as Night Owl service; and possible reductions of the ADA AccessRide service to areas within 1.5 miles of regular service routes.”

That’s an awful lot of cuts. They note that “rising diesel fuel and operating costs” are behind the possible changes, but I’m guessing these changes come at a particularly bad time for many riders - the buses I ride have been fuller every week.

Of course, I’m biased, because one of the routes MTA may cut or change is the one that gets me to work in the morning, and already has limited service in my view because the last one out of downtown runs at just after 5 (meaning that most people working an 8-5 job can’t get there in time and have to find another route home). Personally, I’d rather they mothball the $40 million downtown hub (or find some other solution), because actually getting to work is more important to me than waiting comfortably indoors for a bus.

Public Meeting Schedule (download as PDF):
May 5 - Rochelle Center (Building A) Monday, 6 p.m.
1020 Southside Court

May 6 - Downtown Library Tuesday, Noon & 5:30 p.m.
615 Church Street

May 8 - Madison Library Thursday, 6 p.m.
610 Gallatin Pike

May 12 - Easley Community Center Monday, 5:30 p.m.
1000 Edgehill Ave.

Additional meetings may be held and will be announced at a later date. Individuals do not have to attend these meetings to offer public comments. They may fax comments to (615) 862-6208 or e-mail comments to mta.publichearings@nashville.gov through May 14, 2008. Comments can also be made by calling (615) 862-5950 or by writing MTA at 130 Nestor St., Nashville, TN 37210.

The Music City Oracle has posted about something certain to qualify as a personal recession.

Having just watched Mr. Mom the other night, I was intrigued to read about a dustup surrounding a Lindsay Ferrier article and accompanying blog post. Follow the links on her page for the whole story, but Lindsay’s “offense” was writing candidly (and humorously) about the reality of isolation for SAHDs (which, I learned, means “Stay At Home Dads”)–in particular, the awkwardness of them joining “Moms Groups.”

The movie–and Lindsay’s post(s) were particularly poignant, because I was a SAHD of sorts for a spell a couple years ago. The movie, in particular, reminded me of why I was so relieved to transition out of the Mr. Mom role. Maybe if I had networked into some moms groups my experience would have been different, but I doubt it. Which brings me back to Lindsay’s article.

I’m inclined to say that Ferrier is only guilty of being politically incorrect. I can’t believe that SAHDs will ever find a perfect fit in the world of homemaking, anymore than a woman will find her way into the Monday Night Football booth.

I’ve seen some posts yesterday and today about this and then we got a “tip” from a reader, so here you go, a friendly little reminder that Suze Orman is offering her eBook, “Women and Money: Owning the Power to Control Your Destiny”, free today until 7 pm CST.

Go here to download it. And from what I understand, bring a measure of patience with you since the site is getting “slammed”.

Personally, I’m not an Orman fan, but I loved what Kerry Woo (our “tipster”) said in this comment at GearDiary:

While not everybody agrees with the packaging of the messenger, the principles are the same. Debt can be devastating, especially when medical illness or disasters strike like the recent tornadoes here in Tennessee. Single parents have it rough and even those who been through an extended job loss.

Nonetheless, getting in debt is fun, but it’s a real drag to get out. Sometimes, we don’t want to hear condemnation, but rather compassion. There are many great counseling or financial resources available for your particular style, whether it’s Dave Ramsey, Crown Ministries, Consumer Credit Counseling Services or even Suze Orman.

It’s been said that one can graduate from high school, go to college for a MBA or PhD, and yet never learn how to balance a checkbook or buy their first car or deal with repaying student loans in a tough job market.

So true, so true. And fact is, many women find themselves in dire financial straits after a marriage or long-term relationship goes sour. Sound financial advice is crucial and if this can help someone out, then I’m all for it.

When I drive by the humongo homes in Brentwood and other areas, I sometimes wonder where I’ve gone wrong in my life.  Although my husband and I have worked for years and years, we still stress when it comes to paying bills.  I’ve asked the question before: what do these people do for a living to afford these homes?  I’ve often heard from lenders that the people have no back-up plans and one missed paycheck or illness will do them in… just like other everyday folks like me running after the American dream.  They’re in debt up to their eyeballs.

*Tamara K. links to an article in USA Today that says home ownership is just plain and simple unaffordable for many people - especially those who work in the service industry.  I just read or saw that the service industries comprise 70-80% of jobs in the country today, but I can’t find the source so take that statistic with a grain of salt.  Meanwhile, Tamara says,

They should have farmed this study out to the Department of the Obvious, who could have done it much cheaper. If they wanted to run with the theme, they could have pointed out that home ownership is also out of reach of the incarcerated, minor children, and the deceased.

Owning your own home IS the American dream, but my advice is to forget it if you’re not ready.  Don’t be so anxious that you hurt your long-term financial stability because you jumped in too soon.  Put up with those obnoxious neighbors (hey, you get them when you own, too), that greedy, lazy landlord, and living without a garage.  Try to save some money.  Yes, this is a good time to buy but take your time and make sure you have a couple of mortgage payments set aside in preparation of an emergency situation.  The waiting is never fun, but it’s better than losing your home.

In other housing news - or in this case nonhousing news i.e., homeless - Chris Wage brings us this information.  There are ramifications of homeless policies.  Very sad stuff.

*HT: Les Jones.

While the country is focused on the political races today, the economy is taking a tumble. The Dow has fallen close to 400 points today.

I haven’t found any local bloggers talking about it yet. CNN is the first place I saw news that economists are declaring we are in a recession.

So, on Super Tuesday we get the not so friendly reminder: “It is the economy, stupid”.

Which candidate is going to fix the economy and how?

More from Jim Voorhies:

Today is Wall Street’s worst day in three months (the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down by 370 points today) and coupled with economic news that reports a decline in the service sector (first time in 5 years) of the economy, some economists think we’re now in a recession. (The National Bureau of Economic Research hasn’t made it official, but they never do until it’s months into the recession.) Nashville, with a more diverse economy, has a chance at more restrained impact.

Shaun Groves reminds us that even the most successful people in their fields had to start somewhere…

“Sounds like something a Muppet would sing,” I said out loud to my empty tiny office. “I can’t believe that’s Michael W. Smith. That really really sucks.”

After getting a degree in music composition I moved to Nashville in 1993 with my new bride to begin work as an unpaid intern at what is now Brentwood-Benson Music Publishing. My dream was to write songs for other people for a living. My job though was running a cassette duplicating machine, typing and filing lyrics, and other not-songwriting-related stuff.

But on my lunch breaks I would listen to tapes full of old demos from Christian music’s biggest writers. The first one I perused was ”Michael W. Smith DAT #1”.

Before he was Amy Grant’s keyboard player Michael wrote songs for Brentwood-Benson (when it was called the John T. Benson Publishing Company) and I got to jump in a time machine with a sandwich in my hand and hear what kind of stuff he wrote at my age - in his early twenties.

It turned out to be awful. And hearing it was the biggest boost to my writing I’ve ever received. If Michael W. Smith the Grammy winner and radio star stunk as badly at my age as I do then there’s hope for me, I thought.

Shaun goes on to share a track of his early stuff…

I hope you laugh. Because it’s awful. And I hope after you laugh you sit down and write, encouraged that in time, with enough practice, almost anyone will improve.

Umm all-righty then.

You guys are going to have to talk about this amongst yourselves. I admit, when it comes to stuff like this, I’m not your girl.

When the Fed made a dramatic move to calm the stock market after the Crash of 1987, traders responded with an equally dramatic rally. So why was Wall Street largely unconvinced Tuesday when the central bank made an emergency rate cut of three-quarters of a percentage point? To paraphrase an old campaign slogan, it’s the housing market, stupid.

Bloggers are talking:

Smiley

Jim Voorhies

Tennessee Free

Sadcox

Leave a comment if you have some thoughts on all this.

Educate us. (Wait, me. Yeah me.)

Ariah has recently bought a new home, and he is now experiencing the whole nickel and dime affect of home improvement:

I found myself looking around the house and thinking about what need to be fixed, repaired or ‘improved upon.’ Not that any of these things are bad, but they just fit into different categories. Having a working kitchen sink is one thing. Installing a waterline for your automatic ice maker is different. We’ll probably install the waterline at some point, but how I budget for it will be different since it is not a ‘need.’

Walking around Home Depot, I found my self ’shopping’ more and more. I wasn’t just going in with a list of the things I needed, I was walking the aisles, looking at prices, thinking about how certain ‘improvements’ would look in our home. Again, I’m not saying this is bad, just that you need to be aware and careful about it…

I’ve always said that Target has a $50 cover charge, because I can go in there for a roll of paper towels and come out with at least $50 worth of merchandise. Did I really need the other stuff? Probably not. We live in such a consumer-driven society and, shoot, Target can make everything so attractive and mesmerizing…even paper towels and laundry detergent!

Home Depot gives the appearance that you’re buying in bulk so it must be cheaper…but I really don’t think things are.

Go check out Ariah’s post at Trying to Follow. He gives good advice to new home owners, but it’s advice we could all do well to heed.

I always wanted to open a used book shop. That’s sort of my fantasy when-I-retire job.

Aunt B. also dreams of funky retail, but her angle is slightly different than mine. She wants to open an occult shop, because she feels the need in Nashville is great, and the options are sorely lacking.

As previously noted, there are any number of problems with the woo-woo shops in Nashville. One, they’re all hung up on making sure that you know that they’re all feel-good, safe places to hang out and buy crystals and talk about aliens. Two, they’re not occult shops so much as New Age shops. They smell like hippie incense. The kids working behind the counter are all so young, why bother to ask them for help with anything? I don’t trust that the herbs are what they say they are.

I’ll never forget one afternoon a year and a half ago we were browsing in BookMan/BookWoman and some hippie-incense guy came running in, breathless. He begged the bookstore clerk for directions to the nearest place to get a reading. There was apparently some aura-cleansing emergency that simply could not wait. But then he stood around the shop essentially begging for approval from the store clerk and the other shoppers–as though we were supposed to praise him for how COOL he was to actually be into readings and aura-cleansing. It was bizarre.

Anyway, I hope that her creepy evil occult shop will be available to provide readings for dudes like this so they don’t have to slum it at Magic Journeys.

Remember the story a few weeks ago about wounded Iraq War veterans being asked to repay their enlistment bonuses? Well, it turns out there really isn’t a story there.

Lawmakers condemned the practice, and more than 250 signed on to sponsor legislation designed to right the wrong. They promised to rein in the heartless government bureaucrats who dared to implement a policy that could snatch soldiers’ money away like this.

Problem is, there doesn’t appear to be much of a problem.

Only a handful of cases have been found in which a wounded soldier was asked to repay a bonus, and those turned out to be clerical mistakes.

Many bloggers these days are discussing Tuesday’s Credit Card Company Senate Hearings. (Wake up. I promise that’s kind of interesting, actually.) Read the rest of this entry »

Chris Wage has a story up linking to Samaritan Ministries, a Christian Healthcare Fund.

How will I pay my bills when I have a need? You explain to your care providers (doctors, hospitals, etc.) that you do not have insurance and that you are a self-pay patient. The providers send their bills directly to you. You organize the bills, complete a Need Processing Form, and submit them to Samaritan Ministries. We will publish your need in the newsletter, and the members assigned to your need will be asked to send their monthly shares directly to you through the mail. You can use the money you receive in paying your bills.

I pretty much said my piece about it in the comments over there. Short version: we have relatives who do this and it doesn’t work that well. Bill Hobbs has a good idea in response.

This video at Xark! about the writer’s strike, featuring some writer dude from The Daily Show writing staff. I’ve seen it embedded on various blogs (I think Coma had it up as did some others) but I didn’t watch it until now.

While I support the writers’ aims (they deserve to be reimbursed for internet content) but not their methods (I think the strike is killing an ant with a sledgehammer and hurting a lot of other people), I have to say that whoever is standing in the background of this video has great taste in dogs.

Mike Hammock has an excellent and thought-provoking post about unions in the modern era.

[I]t is often said that without unions, workers would be underpaid because they would have no bargaining power. If labor markets are competitive (that is, if there are several employers and several employees) then this is simply false. There is a reason why different people in different occupations earn different wages, and it has little to do with “power”, and everything to do with Supply and Demand. … I think that in general, however, the social contributions of unions throughout history have been oversold. That is, labor unions may never have been necessary, at least in most circumstances. We should not make the mistake of believing that just because something did happen, it is what should have happened.

There is much more at his place, and it’s all very good.

I never know quite how I feel about unions. I think that in theory they may be a good idea, but any first-hand experience I’ve had with unions in my lifetime has been very negative.

Exador would like to point something out.

Yet another study has come out, showing that women call in sick to work more often than men.

Not just more, nearly TWICE has often.

The obvious answer from human resource experts, employers, employees and even us in the media is always that “working moms have most of the responsibilities at home,” and that translates into female employees having to take sick days to tend to sick kids.

The whole issue of being a woman and taking sick time has always ticked me off, personally. I don’t have sick kids, but I do have one of those immune systems which caves into everything out there. I’ve been in offices where women get the third degree if they’re out sick, while men only get a “hope you’re feeling better” sort of commiseration.

Do the women in your workplace tend to take more sick days than the men, and does it affect their job performance?

Piggybacking on Kat’s post about the high cost of parenting, I noticed that S-townMike at Enclave has a few things to say about not only the perception of stay-at-home dads, but the terminology applied to them.

“Mr. Mom” is a quaint, period-piece movie, but it is about as relevant today as Betamax […].

As an interesting postscript, he quotes a WSJ article describing, among other things, the high costs to men who choose to stay at home:

At-home dads often pay an even higher career price than moms. After dropping out in 2001 for what he thought would be 18 months caring for his son, Eric Sonntag, a former magazine-circulation director, found returning to work so difficult that he had to job-hunt for two years, then take a 20% pay cut. Staying home “set my career back half a decade,” says the Forest Hills, N.Y., father. He was “looked at askance” by many hiring managers, he says. When he explained what he had been doing, some asked disdainfully, “What else did you do?”

Fewer middle-class people are having babies. It’s a topic of much discussion these days, causing worries everywhere from conservative talk shows to government think tanks. One of the main reasons–which seems to go largely unspoken– is discussed here at MSNBC.

Despite all those $200 sneakers you hear about and the long lines at Starbucks, consumers are actually spending less of their income — much less — on discretionary items like clothing, entertainment and food than their parents did. In fact, after taking care of essentials like housing and health care, today’s middle class has about half as much spending money as their parents did in the early 1970s, Warren says.

The basics, according to Warren, now take up close to three-fourths of every family’s spending power (it was about 50 percent in 1973), leaving precious little left over at the end of the month — and leaving many families with no cushion in case of a job loss or health crisis.

That may explain–in part–why my parents were able to have four kids on one income, while many others Read the rest of this entry »

Ariah Fine has some ideas about the Economy Of Jesus. Quite simply, he believes that Christians should operate on a different economic level and with different interactions than non-Christians.

* Whenever possible, foster a gift economy.
This goes beyond just sharing stuff. Instead, it encourages people to
give stuff without expectation.
* Christians should try to open source all of their intellectual property.
Instead of seeing our creations as our property, we should see it as
belonging to the Body of Christ. I believe that this is more faithful
to our theology than assuming that we “need to work within the system.”
We don’t anymore.
* Garden with friends and share the bounty.
* Supplement your gardening with Community Supported Agriculture.
* Share housing. It frees up money for other
things, fosters sharing of resources, encourages hospitality, and helps
us live the way that most people in the world live (and the way folks
in America lived before the 1940s).
* Start making and fixing more things yourself.

* If you can’t make it or fix it, buy it used.
* Instead of investing in your future, invest in the futures of others through micro-financing.
* Reclaim Christmas as a celebration of Christ, rather than a
celebration of affluence.

He goes into detail about these points at his blog. Many of them are interesting points to ponder for those of us who are Christian.

In the midst of the WGA strike there are many actors (like Steve Carrell) who are calling in sick to support their shows’ writers.

Ellen Degeneres: not so much.

“I want to say I love my writers. I love them. In honor of them today, I’m not going to do a monologue. I support them and hope that they get everything they’re asking for. And I hope it works out soon. In the meantime, people have traveled across the country. They’ve made plans. They’re here. I want to do everything I can to make your trip enjoyable and give you a show.”

Meanwhile, some of her former writers are using their words to paint a less-than-flattering picture of the daytime talk-show star.

On SurgicalStrikes.com [this incorrect URL was in the NY Post article. The actual URL is directing to the Surgical Strikes blog showing yet again how Old Media often fails to grok New Media. I mean, come on. If you’re quoting a web source, get the URL right.], one former, unidentified, writer for her 2001-02 sitcom, “The Ellen Show,” reports she treated her writers “like [bleep].”

“We’d watch her in rehearsals, smiling and winning us over with her charm and comic timing. Then the director would yell cut, her face would fall, and she’d level a glare at the writers. ‘Why do you keep writing these unfunny jokes?’ she’d hiss.

The more I read about the strike the more torn I am. I definitely think the writers should receive residuals on any Internet/New Media product which earns money, but I am hearing and reading more and more stories about other people who are or will be losing money as the strike continues. I can’t yet make up my mind if Ellen’s move was cunning P.R. to cast her in a favourable light with the disgruntled fans or if it was career suicide. What writer is going to want to make her look funny after this?

Via: Jim Treacher

I’ve been following this housing situation pretty closely for about 5 years now. Thanks to my dad and brother I’ve also been following the new bankruptcy laws pretty closely as well.

According to a new article in Business Week, the two are closely related.

In past periods of economic turbulence, American households were able to escape mountains of bad debt—and keep their homes—by declaring bankruptcy. During the weak growth years from 2001 to 2003, for example, nonbusiness bankruptcy petitions averaged roughly 1.5 million per year. Lenders complained bitterly that bankruptcy was too easy, but because financially stressed Americans could write off their credit card and other consumer debt, they had more money available to pay their mortgages….A new bankruptcy law, approved by Congress in 2005 after years of debate, makes it much harder for households to get out from under their consumer debt. The result: More people being forced to walk away from their homes, leaving lenders holding the bag. Perversely, a law intended to help the financial industry may be damaging the housing sector, creditors and borrowers alike. “It doesn’t matter what you think of the purpose of the new bankruptcy law. The timing is bad,” says Susan M. Wachter, professor of real estate at the Wharton School of Business.

From discussions we’ve had here before I realise a lot of people are very much dead set against bankruptcy. I personally believe it’s one of the crucial things holding our economy together–especially as we encourage more deficit spending on a private level.

It’s interesting to see the credit industry get bitten back by a law devised to enrich them.

Hat Tip: Instapundit

I do always love Mike’s insight, and last evening’s post did not disappoint:

It’s nice to recognize people’s talents and passions. More importantly, it’s nice to assume that there is more to a person than the job that they do. He might sweep the floors or bus your table, deliver your room service or, like me, drive you in from the airport or carry your bags to your room. All honorable jobs, but never the whole picture. I hope I always remember this as I go through life: being served at restaurants, paying parking garage attendants, waiting in line at various retail counters. These people are always more than their name tags might otherwise indicate.

As a former barista, I appreciate his looking at the person behind the nametag (or apron, as the case may be). I know I, for one, am a much better tipper than I used to be. And, I can tell you first hand that the coffee-pourer with the song in his or her head is no stereotype–I still expect to hear big things from my amazingly-talented former coworkers someday. Even if your waitress never becomes famous, though, her job is never the whole of her life in the here and now. Just ask Brittney.

Mike absolutely right, and we should take more time to see our “servers” as people…and you should take the time to read the rest of the post here.